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  • 21 Сәуір, 2022

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Жетпісбай  Бекболатұлы,
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e-mail: Zhetpisbay.Bekbolatuly@kaznu.kz 

Халық «сәуір болмай – тәуір болмас» деп бекер айтпайды екен. Соған жуырда көзіміз жетті. Бұдан сәл бұрын сарапшылардың көбі алдағы екі-үш айға болжам жасағанда Қазақстан қаржы жүйесінің Еуразиялық экономикалық қауымдастықпен біте қайнасқанын айтып, «әй, қайдам?» деп бас шайқағандарынан бәріміз хабардармыз. Ақпанның соңы-наурыздың басындағы рубльдің күрт құлдилауы, оған ілесе теңге бағамының да құлдырауы, Ресейдің дефолтқа аяқ іліктіруі басқадай тон пішудің ретін келтірмеді. Демін ішіне тартқан қаржыгерлер сұхбат сұраған журналистерден тонын ала қашқан жағдайлар көп кездесті. Алайда, алғашқыда аласұрған  асаудың кебін киген валюта-кредит ахуалы Ұлыстың ұлы күнінен кейін сабасына түскендей болды.                                                                               

Енді міне, жуырда S&P (Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC) халықаралық рейтинг агенттігі Қазақстан Республикасының егемен кредит рейтингінің «тұрақты» болжамды «BBB-» деңгейін растады, ал сарапшылар болса Қазақстанның сыртқы активтері қазіргі уақытта айтарлықтай жеткілікті екенін, ал жалпы сыртқы қаржыландыруға деген мұқтаждығы салыстырмалы түрде төмендігін атап өтіп, күпті көңілге демеу болды. S&P агенттігінің болжамы Каспий құбыр консорциумы (КҚК) қуаттарының қысқа мерзімге төмендеуіне негізделеді. Агенттіктің болжамынша Қазақстанның орнықты фискалдық позициясы мен ауқымды сыртқы резервтері алдағы екі жылда Ресейдегі экономикалық құлдыраудың салдарын біршама бейтараптандырады. Қазақстанның жалпы мұнай экспортының 70 пайызға жуығын Еуропаға тасымалдайтын КҚК құбырының тиеу терминалының ауа райының қолайсыз жағдайына байланысты зақымдануы елдің экономикалық бел­сенділігі мен макроэкономикалық көрсеткіштеріне қысқа мерзімге ғана кері әсерін тигізуі мүмкін. Бұл ретте S&P агенттігі валюта нарығындағы тұрақсыздықты басу үшін резервтерді қолдану салдарынан аталмыш резервтердің көлемі төмендейді деп күтуде. Дегенмен, агенттік мұнай мен алтынның жоғары бағасы, сондай-ақ сыртқы резервтердің жеткілікті деңгейі Қазақстанда орын алуы ықтимал қиындықтарды еңсеруге мүмкіндік береді деп санайды. Биылғы жылдағы ақпанда инфляция 8,7 пайызға жеткенін айтқанбыз, бұл Ұлттық банк орнатқан 4-6 пайыздық дәлізден жоғары болып тұр. Баға тұрақтылығын сақтау мақсатында базалық мөлшерлеме 13,5 пайызға дейін көтерілді. Теңгедегі депозиттердің тартымдылығын сақтау үшін бюджет қаражаты есебінен іске асырылатын теңгелік депозиттерді қорғау тетігі іске қосылды. Сондай-ақ агенттік ресейлік банктерге қолданылған санкциялар Қазақстанның екінші деңгейлі банктері қызметіне шектеулі әсер ететінін алға тартады. S&P пікірінше, қысқа мерзімді келешекте кредит рейтингінің серпіні Каспий құбыр консорциумын қалпына келтіру жұмыстарының мерзімі мен сыртқы экономикалық қызметті қолдауға байланысты болмақ. Ал, ұзақ мерзімде мемлекеттік институттар саясатын одан әрі жетілдіру мен бизнес-ортаны жақсартуға тәуелді. Қазақстанның орнықты фискалдық жағ­дайы, сыртқы резеревтерінің едәуір көлемі және пандемияға дер кезінде ден қоюы сыртқы күйзелістерді бейтараптандырып, кейіннен экономикалық белсен­ділікті қалпына келтіруде маңызды рөл атқарды. Бұл өткен жылы жалпы ішкі өнімнің нақты 4 пайыз өсуіне және экономиканың пандемияға дейінгі өсу қарқынына оралуына әкелді. Бұл ретте, қаржыгер Айбар Олжайдың пікірінше, қазіргі геосаяси шиеленіс жағдайында Ресейге қатысты санкциялардың қайталама әсері Қазақстанның экономикалық өсуіне әсер ететін болады және биыл инфляциялық қысымды күшейтеді. Бұл жағдай әлі жалғасып жатқан пандемия және әлеуметтік шиеленіс жағдайында елдің экономикалық дамуына қатысты белгісіздік тудыруы ықтимал.

Халықаралық валюта қоры биыл Қазақстан жалпы ішкі өнімінің өсуі 2,3 пайызға дейін төмендейді деп болжаса, S&P агенттігі өсім 2 пайыздық деңгейді құрайды деп есептеп отыр. Қор сарапшылары ұзақ мерзімді келешекте экономиканың тұрақты өсуі әртараптандыруды және оның ішінде климаттың өзгеруіне байланысты қатаң шараларды қажет етеді деп атап өтуде. Инфляциялық қысым мен фискалдық ынталандыруды ескергенде Ұлттық банктің ақша-кредит саясатын орташа қатаң және негізделген деп бағалауға болады. Инфляция биылғы ақпанда негізінен азық-түлік бағасының өсуі есебінен 8,7 пайызға жетті, бұл белгіленген 4-6 пайыз дәлізден жоғары. Бұл ретте болжамға сәйкес үстіміздегі жылы инфляция жоғары болады, алайда орта мерзімді келешекте оның 4 пайыздық деңгейіне дейін төмендеуі күтіледі. Инфляциялық таргеттеудің толыққанды тәртібіне көшу, транспаренттілікті жақсарту, ақша-кредит саясатының тәуелсіздігін және коммуникация тиімділігін арттыру, сондай-ақ орталық банктің талдамалық әлеуетін дамыту жөніндегі жұмыс оң нәтижесін беруде. Базалық мөлшерлеме бойынша шешімдерді ақпараттандыру және түсіндіру, валюталық операцияларды жариялау, сондай-ақ кеңес беру мен техникалық көмек тарту аясында Халықаралық валюта қорымен тұрақты екіжақты сұхбат аталған оң өзгерістердің негізгі қозғаушы күші саналып отыр. Ақша-кредит саясатының тиімділігін одан әрі арттыру талдамалық әлеует пен тұтынушылармен қарым-қатынасты жақсартуды, капиталдың ішкі нарығын дамытуды, долларлану деңгейін төмендетуді, іс-әрекеттегі дербестік пен ұлттық институттарға сенімділікті арттыруды талап етеді. Сарапшылар ақша-кредит және салық-бюджет саясатын үйлестіруді жақсарту инфляцияны тежеуге де ықпал етеді деп санап отыр. Мемлекеттік органдардың салық-бюджет саясатын анағұрлым ұтымды ету және фискалдық тұрақтылықты қамтамасыз ету мен ұрпақтар арасында әл-ауқатты әділ бөлу мақсатында жаңа бюджеттік ережелерді іске асыру қажет. Сондай-ақ тұтынушылық несиелендірудің қарқынды өсуі жағдайында қаржылық тұрақтылықты қамтамасыз ету үшін қаржы нарығын қадағалау мен реттеуді одан әрі күшейту де маңызды.

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